+ Îòâåòèòü â òåìå
Ñòðàíèöà 8 èç 12 ÏåðâàÿÏåðâàÿ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ÏîñëåäíÿÿÏîñëåäíÿÿ
Ïîêàçàíî ñ 71 ïî 80 èç 111

Òåìà: Ôóíäàìåíò - ïîëèòèêà, ýêîíîìèêà, âàæíûå ñîáûòèÿ

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    ClusterDelta.com Team
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    12.11.2011
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    4,067
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    627
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 1,776 ðàç(à) â 1,249 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    ìåõàíèçì «öèâèëèçîâàííîãî» ïðåîäîëåíèÿ ñóâåðåííûõ äåôîëòîâ ñòàë â ïîñëåäíåå âðåìÿ äàâàòü ñáîè. Ïðè÷èíà ýòîìó – äåÿòåëüíîñòü íåêîòîðûõ êðóïíûõ èíâåñòèöèîííûõ ôîíäîâ, êîòîðûå ïîëó÷èëè íàçâàíèå «ôèíàíñîâûõ ñòåðâÿòíèêîâ». Îíè ïðèîáðåòàþò íåêîòîðóþ ÷àñòü áóìàã ãîñóäàðñòâà - ïîòåíöèàëüíîãî áàíêðîòà, à â ñëó÷àå äåôîëòà îòêàçûâàþòñÿ ó÷àñòâîâàòü â ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè äîëãà. Îíè çàíèìàþò æåñòêóþ ïîçèöèþ è òðåáóþò ïîãàøåíèÿ áóìàã ïî íîìèíàëó, ò.å. 100%.
    «Ôèíàíñîâûå ñòåðâÿòíèêè» çàêðóæèëè íàä Óêðàèíîé.

    http://scharapow-w.livejournal.com/65576.html

    Àìåðèêàíñêèé èíâåñòèöèîííûé ôîíä Ôðàíêëèí Òåìïëòîí èìååò âñå ïðèçíàêè «ôèíàíñîâîãî ñòåðâÿòíèêà». Òî, ÷òî ýòîò ôîíä êóïèë 20% óêðàèíñêîãî äîëãà – ÿâíûé ïðèçíàê òîãî, ÷òî ñòðàíà íàõîäèòñÿ íà ãðàíè äåôîëòà. Áåçóñëîâíî, ýòî ñîáûòèå î÷åíü âçâîëíîâàëî ðóêîâîäñòâî Óêðàèíû. Íåäàðîì ïåðâûé âèöå-ïðåìüåð è ìèíèñòð ôèíàíñîâ Óêðàèíû ïîì÷àëèñü òóò æå çà îêåàí â øòàá-êâàðòèðó ôîíäà äëÿ òîãî, ÷òîáû ïîíÿòü, êàêîâû íàìåðåíèÿ Ôðàíêëèí Òåìïëòîí. Íî ýòîò âèçèò óæå íè÷åãî íå ðåøàåò.
    ïëîõîé ñèãíàë
    íàöáàíê äàâíåíüêî óæå ïûòàåòüñÿ âïàðèòü äîëãîâûå ðàñïèñêè íàñåëåíèþ
    ïî ðàäèî ðåêëàìèðóþò :)
    Àëåêñàíäð

    ÷òî áû ïîñìîòðåòü êàðòèíêó â ïîëíîì ðàçìåðå - ïðàâîé êíîïêîé ìûøè\ îòêðûòü èçîáðàæåíèå â íîâîé âêëàäêå
    óñòàíîâêà èíäèêàòîðîâ âèäåî https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCax...KqtnrtnrHnOccg

    Òâèòòåð

    ñíà÷àëà ïóáëèêóþ â Telegram

  2. #72
    Ïîñòîÿííûé ó÷àñòíèê Àâàòàð äëÿ sergey75rus
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    05.04.2012
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    2,350
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    830
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 718 ðàç(à) â 474 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    Êàê ñîçäàþòñÿ êîòèðîâêè âàëþò.

    Ìàëî êòî äîãàäûâàåòñÿ î òîì, îòêóäà âîçíèêàþò ðåàëüíûå âàëþòíûå êîòèðîâêè, êîòîðûå êàæäûé òðåéäåð âèäèò â ñâî¸ì òîðãîâîì òåðìèíàëå. Áîëüøèíñòâî äàæå íå çàäóìûâàåòñÿ î òàêèõ î÷åâèäíûõ âåùàõ. Ñàìûé ïðîñòîé îòâåò - êóðñû âàëþò ôîðìèðóåò ñïðîñ è ïðåäëîæåíèå íà ðûíêå - íå ñîâñåì îòðàæàåò äåéñòâèòåëüíîå ïîëîæåíèå âåùåé, õîòÿ äîëÿ èñòèíû â ýòîé ôîðìóëèðîâêå åñòü. ß ïîñòàðàþñü ïî ïîðÿäêó ðàññêàçàòü î âñåõ ìèôàõ è ðåàëèÿõ ñîáûòèé, ïðèâîäÿùèõ ê ñìåíå êîòèðîâîê íà ôîðåêñ. Êîå ÷òî îáîáùó, êîå ÷òî óïðîùó äëÿ ëó÷øåãî âîñïðèÿòèÿ.
    Ñóùåñòâóåò ðàñõîæåå ìíåíèå, ÷òî â ãëîáàëüíîì ïëàíå (íå èìåþòñÿ â âèäó òèêîâûå, ìãíîâåííûå êîòèðîâêè) âàëþòíûå êóðñû ôîðìèðóåò ïàðèòåò ïîêóïàòåëüíîé ñïîñîáíîñòè (ÏÏÑ).  êà÷åñòâå ïðèìåðà áåð¸òñÿ îáû÷íûé ãàìáóðãåð, ñòîèìîñòü êîòîðîãî â ëþáîé ñòðàíå ðàçíàÿ. Ñóùåñòâóåò äàæå èíäåêñ Big Mac, êîòîðûé ðåãóëÿðíî ïóáëèêóåò æóðíàë The Economist. Ñóäÿ ïî òåêóùåìó îáìåííîìó êóðñó Big Mac, êîòîðûé ïðîäàåòñÿ çà 4,33 äîëëàðà â Àìåðèêå, ðåàëüíûé îáìåííûé êóðñ åâðî ê äîëëàðó äîëæåí áûòü ðàâåí ïðàêòè÷åñêè åäèíèöå, ïîòîìó ÷òî ãàìáóðãåð â Åâðîïå â ñðåäíåì ñòîèò ïðàêòè÷åñêè òå æå 4.34 äîëëàðà, ðàçíèöà òîëüêî â îäèí öåíò.  òàáëèöå ïîêàçàíî, íàñêîëüêî Áèã Ìàê ïåðåîöåíåí (íåäîîöåíåí) îòíîñèòåëüíî åãî ñòîèìîñòè â ÑØÀ (ò¸ìíûå êðóæêè) è íàñêîëüêî öåíà ýòîãî ïðîäóêòà ñîîòâåòñòâóåò ðåàëüíûì âàëþòíûì êóðñàì.





    Íà ñàìîì äåëå ÏÏÑ ôîðìèðóåòñÿ íå òîëüêî èç öåí íà ãàìáóðãåð, äëÿ ðàñ÷¸òà ïàðèòåòà íàïîëíÿåòñÿ êîðçèíà èç áîëüøîãî ñïåêòðà òîâàðîâ è óñëóã, äîëÿ êîòîðûõ, íàïðèìåð â ÂÂÏ ÑØÀ, äîñòèãàåò 80%. Áåðóòñÿ ðåàëüíûå öåíû íà ïðîäóêòû ïèòàíèÿ, àâòîìîáèëè, áûòîâóþ òåõíèêó, íåäâèæèìîñòü, â ðàñ÷¸ò ïðèíèìàåòñÿ äàæå ñòîèìîñòü ñòðèæêè â ïàðèêìàõåðñêîé èëè áèëåòà â êèíî. Òî åñòü ñðàâíèâàþòñÿ öåíû íà îäèíàêîâûå òîâàðû è òå óñëóãè, ïðîäîëæèòåëüíîñòü è êà÷åñòâî êîòîðûõ âîîáùå ìîæíî ñðàâíèâàòü.

    Íî è ÏÏÑ íå îòðàæàåò ðåàëüíîãî ñîîòíîøåíèÿ ñòîèìîñòè âàëþò. Åñòü ñòðàíû, â êîòîðûõ ãàìáóðãåðû íà äóõ íå ïåðåíîñÿò, åñòü ñòðàíû, â êîòîðûõ íå ëþáÿò êèíî, è åñòü ñòðàíû, â êîòîðûõ ìîïåäû è âåëîñèïåäû ïðåäïî÷èòàþò àâòîìîáèëÿì. Êàê òîãäà ñ÷èòàòü ÏÏÑ? Ñ÷èòàþò, íàõîäÿò ñïîñîáû è ÷àùå âñåãî ïàðèòåò ïîêóïàòåëüíîé ñïîñîáíîñòè äîâîëüíî òî÷íî îòðàæàåò ðåàëüíîå ñîîòíîøåíèå âàëþòíûõ êóðñîâ.

    Íî íàñ-òî èíòåðåñóåò ñîâñåì äðóãîå, íàñ èíòåðåñóåò îòêóäà ïîÿâëÿþòñÿ òå öèôðû íà ýêðàíå, êîòîðûå èíîãäà ìåíÿþòñÿ òàê áûñòðî, ÷òî ãëàçàì íå óñëåäèòü. Åù¸ ðàç ïîâòîðþ, ÿ ïîñòàðàþñü êàê ìîæíî ïðîùå ðàññêàçàòü î ôîðìèðîâàíèè êîòèðîâîê, ïîýòîìó ìíîãèå ïîäðîáíîñòè óïóùó, î íåêîòîðûõ âåùàõ ïîâåäàþ â ñàìûõ îáùèõ ÷åðòàõ, à êîå íà ÷¸ì îñòàíîâëþñü ïîäðîáíî.

     1999 ãîäó êîìïàíèÿ State Street Corp îñíîâàëà Electronic Communication Network (ECN) Currenex, êîòîðàÿ íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ íè áèðæåé, íè êàêîé-ëèáî òîðãîâîé ïëîùàäêîé. Îíè ñîçäàëè ïðîãðàììíîå îáåñïå÷åíèå è ðàçìåñòèëè åãî íà ñåðâåðàõ, êîòîðûå ñäàþò â àðåíäó èëè ïðîñòî ïîäêëþ÷àþò ê íèì íîâûõ ïîëüçîâàòåëåé íà îïðåäåë¸ííûõ óñëîâèÿõ. Áîëåå 70 êðóïíåéøèõ áàíêîâ ïîñòàâëÿþò ñâîè êîòèðîâêè íà Currenex, à ïðîãðàììíîå îáåñïå÷åíèå î÷åíü ãèáêî îáðàáàòûâàåò ïîñòóïàþùèå äàííûå è âûäà¸ò ñîáñòâåííûå êîòèðîâêè è ôèêñèðóåò ñäåëêè ó÷àñòíèêîâ ñèñòåìû. Ñðàçó îòìå÷ó, ÷òî ìèíèìàëüíûé êîíòðàêò â ñèñòåìå Currenex 50-100 òûñÿ÷ äîëëàðîâ (ñòàíäàðòíûé ìåæáàíêîâñêèé êîíòðàêò 5 ìëí. äîëëàðîâ). Ïî÷åìó òàêàÿ íåòî÷íàÿ ñóììà? Ñåé÷àñ îáúÿñíþ.

    Òàê íàçûâàåìûå Ïðàéì-áðîêåðû (Prime Broker), êîòîðûå ÿâëÿþòñÿ ÷àùå âñåãî áàíêàìè, ïðåäîñòàâëÿþò áðîêåðñêèå óñëóãè êðóïíûì êîìïàíèÿì. Êîìïàíèè, â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü, ìîãóò òîðãîâàòü âàëþòàìè íå òîëüêî ÷åðåç ñàì áàíê Ïðàéì-áðîêåð, ýòî âîâñå íå îáÿçàòåëüíî, íî è ÷åðåç äðóãèå áàíêè, èñïîëüçóÿ èõ ïðîãðàììíîå îáåñïå÷åíèå, òîðãîâûå òåðìèíàëû è ò.ä. Ïðàéì-áðîêåð îñòà¸òñÿ ëèøü ïîñðåäíèêîì âñåõ îïåðàöèé. È ïîëó÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî ìèíèìàëüíàÿ ñóììà êîíòðàêòà â ýòîì êîíêðåòíîì ñëó÷àå çàâèñèò âîâñå íå îò Currenex è Ïðàéì-áðîêåðà (õîòÿ èõ ñîãëàñèå òîæå íåîáõîäèìî), à îò áàíêîâ, ÷åðåç êîòîðûå êîìïàíèè ïðèä¸òñÿ ñîâåðøàòü ñäåëêè. Ãäå-òî ÷èòàë, ÷òî ðîññèéñêèé äèëèíã Àëüïàðè ñóìåë äîãîâîðèòüñÿ ñ áàíêàìè-ïàðòí¸ðàìè î ìèíèìàëüíîì êîíòðàêòå â 10000 äîëëàðîâ, îêàçûâàåòñÿ ýòî âîçìîæíî è íà ìåæáàíêå. Ïîýòîìó íå íàäî íàçûâàòü âñå ðîññèéñêèå ÄÖ "êóõíÿìè", è òîðãîâëÿ âàëþòàìè ìèíóÿ äèëåðà (NDD, non dealing desk) - â Ðîññèè äîñòóïíà. Ýòî íå ðåêëàìà, à ïðîñòî êîíñòàòàöèÿ ôàêòà. Ìîæíî ïîäðîáíåå ïîñìîòðåòü î ïðàéì-áðîêåðàõ íà èõ ñàéòå.

    À ïðè ÷¸ì çäåñü â òàêîì ñëó÷àå Currenex, ñïðîñèòå âû? À êàê ðàç ïðè òîì, ÷òî êîòèðîâêè äëÿ òîðãóþùåé âàëþòàìè êîìïàíèè áóäåò ïîñòàâëÿòü èìåííî Currenex, åñëè áàíêè, ñ êîòîðûìè ñîáèðàåòñÿ ðàáîòàòü êîìïàíèÿ, ñîñòîÿò â ýòîé ñèñòåìå. Ñóùåñòâóåò åù¸ íåñêîëüêî ECN-ñèñòåì, ãîðàçäî áîëåå âçðîñëûõ è ñèëüíûõ, ÷åì Currenex, íàïðèìåð çíàìåíèòàÿ Reuters, â êîòîðóþ ïîñòàâëÿþò èíôîðìàöèþ 2600 áàíêîâ, íå ìåíåå çíàìåíèòàÿ Electronic Broking Service (EBS), êîòîðàÿ ðàçðàáîòàíà êîíñîðöèóìîì êðóïíûõ áàíêîâ-ó÷àñòíèêîâ âàëþòíûõ òîðãîâ, ïðàâÿò ýòîé ñèñòåìîé 13 áàíêîâ è áàíêîâñêèõ îáúåäèíåíèé è ìèíèìàëüíûé êîíòðàêò â íåé 10 ìëí. äîëëàðîâ. Âñå ECN ñâÿçàíû ìåæäó ñîáîé è ìãíîâåííî ðåàãèðóþò íà ñìåíó êîòèðîâîê â ëþáîé èç ñèñòåì.

    Òåïåðü îáÿçàòåëüíî íàäî âñïîìíèòü î ëèêâèäíîñòè, áåç ýòîãî ïîíÿòèÿ äàëüíåéøèå îáúÿñíåíèÿ íå áóäóò èìåòü ñìûñëà. Ëèêâèäíîñòü - ñïîñîáíîñòü àêòèâîâ áûòü áûñòðî ïðîäàííûìè ïî öåíå, áëèçêîé ê ðûíî÷íîé. À åñëè óïðîñòèòü äî íåïðèëè÷èÿ, òî øêàô - àêòèâ ìåáåëüíîãî ìàãàçèíà, íî ÷òîáû ïðîäàòü åãî íóæíû ìåñÿöû èëè äàæå ãîäû. Øêàô - íåëèêâèäíûé àêòèâ. Äåíüãè èìåþò íàèâûñøóþ ëèêâèäíîñòü, ÷òîáû èõ ïðîäàòü, íóæíû äîëè ñåêóíäû, â îáùåì è öåëîì äåíüãè íàçûâàþò ñèíîíèìîì ëèêâèäíîñòè, è ÷àñòîå èñïîëüçîâàíèå â îêîëîýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ïðåññå ïîíÿòèÿ "êîëè÷åñòâî ëèêâèäíîñòè" èìååò òîëüêî îäèí ñìûñë - êîëè÷åñòâî äåíåã.

    Ìàëî òîãî, ÷òî 15-20 êðóïíåéøèõ ìèðîâûõ áàíêîâ ñîñðåäîòî÷èëè ó ñåáÿ ñàìûå áîëüøèå çàïàñû ëèêâèäíîñòè, îíè æå ÿâëÿþòñÿ â áîëüøèíñòâå ñëó÷àåâ è ñàìûìè êðóïíûìè Ïðàéì-áðîêåðàìè, ÷òî çàñòàâëÿåò ñòåêàòüñÿ ê íèì åù¸ áîëåå êðóïíûå ñóììû äåíåã â êà÷åñòâå ìàðæèíàëüíîãî îáåñïå÷åíèÿ êîìïàíèé, ïîëüçóþùèõñÿ èõ áðîêåðñêèìè óñëóãàìè.  èòîãå ïîëó÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî ïðàêòè÷åñêè âñÿ òîðãîâëÿ íà ðåàëüíîì ðûíêå ôîðåêñ ïðîèñõîäèò ìåæäó ýòèìè áàíêàìè. È âîò òóò ÿ ïîäõîæó ê ñàìîìó ãëàâíîìó.

    ×òî æå ïðîèñõîäèò â òîò ìîìåíò, êîãäà ÿ âûñòàâëÿþ çàÿâêó íà ìãíîâåííóþ ïîêóïêó åâðî çà äîëëàð? Ïî ïðàâèëàì ëþáîé èç ñåòåé ECN, òîðãîâëÿ âàëþòàìè â ñèñòåìå îñóùåñòâëÿåòñÿ ìåæäó êîíòðàãåíòàìè, â êàæäûé ìîìåíò âðåìåíè äëÿ ïîêóïàòåëÿ åâðî íàõîäèòñÿ æåëàþùèé ïðîäàòü. Åñòü è åù¸ îäíî ïðàâèëî, â êîòîðîì íàñ ïûòàþòñÿ óáåäèòü âñå ïîñòàâùèêè êîòèðîâîê â ñèñòåìå ECN, î÷åíü èíòåðåñíîå ïðàâèëî: åñëè ÿ ðàáîòàþ ÷åðåç Ïðàéì-áðîêåðà ñ íåñêîëüêèìè áàíêàìè, êîòîðûå, ñêàæåì òàê, ïîñòàâëÿþò ìíå êîíòðàãåíòîâ, ãîòîâûõ ïðÿìî ñåé÷àñ êóïèòü ó ìåíÿ åâðî, òî ECN âûäàñò ìíå ëó÷øóþ (!) èç êîòèðîâîê, ïðåäëîæåííûõ êîíòðàãåíòàìè.

    Ïðèìåð: ß ñîáèðàþñü êóïèòü åâðî ðîâíî ïî 1.50000 , íî ïðîäàâöû òîæå íå äóðàêè è ïðåäëàãàþò ìíå åâðî ïî áîëåå âûñîêîé öåíå, îäèí ïî 1.50003, âòîðîé ïî 1.50007, òðåòèé âîîáùå ïî 1.50012. È âîò òóò ÿ íàïèøó íåñêîëüêî ïðåäëîæåíèé, ñ êîòîðûìè âû ìîæåòå ñîãëàñèòüñÿ, à ìîæåòå íå ñîãëàøàòüñÿ, íî åñëè âû ñîáðàëèñü ÷èòàòü äàëüøå, òî âàì ïðèä¸òñÿ ïðèíÿòü âñ¸ ñêàçàííîå íà âåðó.

    1. Íè îäèí èç áàíêèðîâ, ñêîëüêî áû íàñ íè ïûòàëèñü óáåäèòü â îáðàòíîì, íå ðàáîòàåò äëÿ êëèåíòà, îí ðàáîòàåò òîëüêî äëÿ ñåáÿ.

    2. Ñèñòåìà ECN, ñîçäàííàÿ áàíêàìè äëÿ áàíêîâ, íå ìîæåò ðàáîòàòü ïðîòèâ áàíêîâ.

    3. Êëèåíò ñèñòåìû ECN íå èìååò âîçìîæíîñòè ñàì ñîçäàâàòü êîòèðîâêè, îí ìîæåò òîëüêî ôîðìèðîâàòü ñïðîñ íà ðûíêå.

    4. Â ëþáîé òåêóùèé ìîìåíò âðåìåíè â ñèñòåìå ìîæåò íå îêàçàòüñÿ êîíòðàãåíòà, ãîòîâîãî êóïèòü ó ìåíÿ åâðî.

    ß ðàáîòàþ ÷åðåç áàíê è îò èìåíè áàíêà. Ïðè ïðîâåðêå îò÷¸òîâ ïî ñäåëêàì â êîíöå ìåñÿöà ÿ ìîãó âèäåòü ñâîèõ êîíòðàãåíòîâ.  êàæäîé ñäåëêå ïðè ïîêóïêå ìîæåò áûòü îäèí êîíòðàãåíò, à ïðè çàêðûòèè ñäåëêè äðóãîé, íî âñå êîíòðàãåíòû ìîèõ îïåðàöèé - áàíêè è òîëüêî áàíêè. Êàæäûé ðàç ïîêóïàÿ åâðî, åñëè âû êîíå÷íî ðàáîòàåòå â ñèñòåìå ECN, âû çàêëþ÷àåòå êîíòðàêò íå ñ êîíêðåòíûì ïðîäàâöîì (ôèçè÷åñêèì ëèöîì, âòîðè÷íûì áðîêåðîì, äèëåðîì), âû ïîêóïàåòå åâðî ó áàíêà, êîòîðûé ÿâëÿåòñÿ è ïîñòàâùèêîì ëèêâèäíîñòè è (÷åðåç ECN) ïîñòàâùèêîì êîòèðîâîê. Áàíê ïðîäà¸ò âàì åâðî îòíþäü íå ïî ëó÷øåé öåíå, áàíê âûäà¸ò âàì êîòèðîâêè, âûãîäíûå â äàííûé ìîìåíò ñàìîìó áàíêó, çàòåì òèêîâûå êîòèðîâêè (äîëè ñåêóíä - ñåêóíäû) ñìåùàþòñÿ â äðóãóþ ñòîðîíó è âàø ðåàëüíûé êîíòðàãåíò ïðîäà¸ò òî æå êîëè÷åñòâî åâðî áàíêó, è îïÿòü æå ïî öåíå, âûãîäíîé áàíêó. Áàíê óæå â ïðèáûëè, è âñå ó÷àñòíèêè äîâîëüíû, äâà êîíòðàãåíòà ñîâåðøèëè - îäèí ïîêóïêó åâðî, âòîðîé ïðîäàæó åâðî - ïî "ðûíî÷íîé", "ïîòîêîâîé" öåíå. Îíè ìîãóò ãîðäèòüñÿ òåì, ÷òî ðàáîòàþò â ñèñòåìå ECN è âñå ñäåëêè ñîâåðøàþòñÿ ïðàêòè÷åñêè ìãíîâåííî ïî "ëó÷øèì öåíàì".

    Ñàìûé ãëîáàëüíûé âîïðîñ, êîòîðûé èíòåðåñóåò ìíîãèõ ó÷àñòíèêîâ ôîðåêñ. Êàê òàê ïîëó÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî íà ðûíêå îäíîâðåìåííî ðàâíîå êîëè÷åñòâî ïðîäàâöîâ è ïîêóïàòåëåé (åñëè ÿ ïðîäàþ, òî êòî-òî ó ìåíÿ ïîêóïàåò?), ñïðîñ è ïðåäëîæåíèå íà äîëëàð ðàâíû, íî öåíû íà äîëëàð ìåíÿþòñÿ? Ïîÿñíþ íà ñàìîì ÿðêîì ïðèìåðå, íà âûõîäå õîðîøåé íîâîñòè, äîïóñòèì äëÿ åâðî.  ýòîò ìîìåíò ïðîèñõîäèò ïåðåêîñ â ñïðîñå íà åâðî è ñïðîñå íà äîëëàð. Íî ñèñòåìà ECN ïðîäîëæàåò ðàáîòàòü íà áàíêèðîâ.

    Âñåì æåëàþùèì êóïèòü åâðî áàíêè ïðåäëàãàþò êóïèòü âàëþòó ïî öåíå ãîðàçäî âûøå ðûíî÷íîé, êîòèðîâêè âçëåòàþò, ñèñòåìà ïûòàåòñÿ îáåçîïàñèòü ñåáÿ è ðàáîòàåò íà îïåðåæåíèå.  ýòîò ìîìåíò, îêàçûâàåòñÿ, äàæå ïî çàâûøåííûì öåíàì - â ðåàëüíîñòè íèêòî íå çíàåò íàñòîÿùèõ ìîìåíòàëüíûõ öåí - åñòü ñïðîñ, è áàíê ïðîäîëæàåò ïîâûøàòü êîòèðîâêè äî òåõ ïîð, ïîêà äàâëåíèå ñî ñòîðîíû ñïðîñà íå ñíèçèòñÿ. Åñëè êòî-òî äóìàåò, ÷òî áàíêè íà ýòîì ïðîèãðàëè, òî îí îøèáàåòñÿ. Òîò äèñáàëàíñ â ñïðîñå íà åâðî, êîòîðûé ïðîèçîø¸ë âî âðåìÿ âûõîäà íîâîñòè, íå òàêîé áîëüøîé, êàê ýòî ìîæåò ïîêàçàòüñÿ. Ïðîäàâöû åâðî â ýòîò ìîìåíò òîæå ïðèñóòñòâóþò, íî çà ñ÷¸ò ðàñøèðåíèÿ ñïðåäà îíè ñîâåðøàþò ñäåëêè íà õóäøèõ óñëîâèÿõ. Áàíêè îïÿòü â ïðèáûëè. Îíè âûãîäíî ïðîäàëè åâðî è âûãîäíî êóïèëè. Áàëàíñ áàíêà íå íàðóøåí, âñå ðèñêè âçÿëè íà ñåáÿ êîíòðàãåíòû, îäèí êóïèë åâðî, âòîðîé åãî ïðîäàë, ïðè÷¸ì êàæäûé åù¸ è çàïëàòèë êîìèññèþ.

    Ïîëó÷àåòñÿ, ÷òî ñèñòåìà âñåãäà ðàáîòàåò íà ïåðñïåêòèâó ñïðîñà, ðåãóëèðóÿ êîòèðîâêè ïî ìàëåéøèì ñìåùåíèÿì áàëàíñà ñïðîñ-ïðåäëîæåíèå. Ïîñëå ðîñòà èëè ïàäåíèÿ ðûíîê ïðèõîäèò â ðàâíîâåñèå, íî êîòèðîâêè îñòàþòñÿ òàì, êóäà èõ çàãíàëè. Óñëîâíî, î÷åíü óñëîâíî ìîæíî ñêàçàòü, ÷òî òåêóùèå êîòèðîâêè çàâèñÿò îò êîëè÷åñòâà îòêðûòûõ â äàííûé ìîìåíò ïîçèöèé. Àëãîðèòìû îòòî÷åíû è ñîâåðøåíñòâóþòñÿ ãîäàìè. Åñëè ñðàâíèâàòü áàëàíñ ñïðîñà-ïðåäëîæåíèÿ íà ðàçíûõ ïëîùàäêàõ, òî ìîæíî óáåäèòüñÿ â íàëè÷èè ïåðåêîñîâ. Íåðåäêî, à äàæå î÷åíü ÷àñòî ñëó÷àåòñÿ òàê, ÷òî îáú¸ìû ïðîäàæ ïðåâûøàþò îáú¸ìû ïîêóïîê, íî êîòèðîâêè ïðîäîëæàþò îñòàâàòüñÿ íà âûñîêèõ óðîâíÿõ è äàæå ðàñòóò.

    Âîçíèêàåò åù¸ îäèí âîïðîñ, îò÷åãî âîçíèêàþò òàê íàçûâàåìûå ãýïû, èëè ðàçðûâû â öåíå íà îòêðûòèè ðûíêà ôîðåêñ? Áàíêè â âûõîäíûå çàêðûòû, ïîñòàâùèêè êîòèðîâîê è ëèêâèäíîñòè íå ðàáîòàþò. Îïåðàöèé íåò. ß ñåé÷àñ íå ãîâîðþ ïðî ãýïû, êîòîðûå ïîÿâëÿþòñÿ â ðîññèéñêèõ ÄÖ ïî ïðè÷èíå èõ ïîçäíåãî îòêðûòèÿ, ìíîãèå èç íèõ íà÷èíàþò ðàáîòó ÷åðåç 1-3 ÷àñà ïîñëå íà÷àëà ðàáîòû ãëîáàëüíîãî ðûíêà, îòñþäà è ðàçðûâ â öåíå. ß ãîâîðþ êàê ðàç î ãýïàõ íà òåõ æå Currenex èëè EBS, êîòîðûå òîæå ïîÿâëÿþòñÿ íà ãðàôèêå, õîòÿ è î÷åíü ðåäêî. Íà ôîíäîâîì ðûíêå åñòü òàêîå ïîíÿòèå - ïðåìàðêåò, íå áóäó îïèñûâàòü êàê ýòî ðàáîòàåò, íî â ýòî âðåìÿ öåíû íà àêöèè íå ìåíÿþòñÿ, òðåéäåðû âèäÿò ïîëîæèòåëüíûé èëè îòðèöàòåëüíûé èìáåëàíñ ïî àêöèÿì è òåêóùèå îáúåìû.

    Íà ôîðåêñå òîæå åñòü ïðåìàðêåò, åãî ðàáîòó ìîæíî ïðîíàáëþäàòü íà ëþáîì ãðàôèêå, íàïðèìåð íà êàðòèíêå èç Áëóìáåðãà, ïîñëå 11.00 ìñê. Êîòèðîâêè äâèæóòñÿ, íî òîðãîâëè íåò, åñòü òîëüêî çàÿâêè. Äåíüãè â ýòîò ìîìåíò íå ðàáîòàþò, ðàáîòàþò íîâûå ñâåäåíèÿ îò ïîäêëþ÷àþùèõñÿ ê ñèñòåìå áàíêîâ è óñòðàíÿåòñÿ äèñáàëàíñ êîòèðîâîê. Ñèñòåìà òàêèì îáðàçîì ðåãóëèðóåò âåðîÿòíûé ñïðîñ, êîòîðûé ìîæåò âîçíèêíóòü íà ìîìåíò îòêðûòèÿ òîðãîâ. ×àùå âñåãî ýòî ïðîèñõîäèò íà ôîíå ñîáûòèé âûõîäíîãî äíÿ. Àíàëèòè÷åñêèå îòäåëû áàíêîâ óæå ïðîñ÷èòàëè âñå âåðîÿòíîñòè ïðåäñòîÿùåãî ñïðîñà è çàùèòèëè ñåáÿ îò ïîñëåäñòâèé.

    Îäíî çàìå÷àíèå. Ñóùåñòâóåò ñòàòèñòèêà, èç êîòîðîé ñëåäóåò, ÷òî íà ðûíîê âàëþò î÷åíü ñèëüíîå âëèÿíèå îêàçûâàåò òîðãîâëÿ òîâàðàìè è ñûðü¸ì ìåæäó ñòðàíàìè. Âñ¸ âðîäå âåðíî, òîðãîâëÿ áûëà, åñòü è áóäåò, è, åñëè îáúÿñíÿòü ïðîñòûìè ñëîâàìè, äëÿ ïîêóïêè îáîðóäîâàíèÿ èç ßïîíèè àìåðèêàíöàì ïîíàäîáèòñÿ îáìåíÿòü ñâîé äîëëàð íà éåíû è òîëüêî ïîñëå ýòîãî ñîâåðøèòü ïîêóïêó. Ïðåäñòàâèì ñåáå, ÷òî ðàçìåð ñäåëêè íåñêîëüêî äåñÿòêîâ, à òî è ñîòåí ìèëëèîíîâ äîëëàðîâ. Òàêèå äåíüãè íå ëåæàò â êîøåëüêå ó ïîêóïàòåëÿ, îíè ëåæàò â îäíîì èç áàíêîâ, çíà÷èò ïåðåä ñîâåðøåíèåì êîíâåðñèîííîé îïåðàöèè êîìïàíèÿ çàðàíåå îáðàòèòñÿ â áàíê è äåíüãè áóäóò îáìåíåíû è ñäåëàí ïåðåâîä êîìïàíèè-ïðîäàâöó. ×àùå âñåãî îïåðàöèè òàêîãî ìàñøòàáà ïðîâîäÿòñÿ íå çà îäèí äåíü è áàíêàì çàðàíåå èçâåñòíû ñóììû ñäåëîê.

    Íî äàæå ýòî íå âàæíî. Äåíüãè íå ïîêèíóëè áàíêîâñêóþ ñèñòåìó, êîëè÷åñòâî äåíåã íå èçìåíèëîñü.  äàííîì ñëó÷àå ñïðîñ è ïðåäëîæåíèå íå èãðàþò òàêîé ñèëüíîé ðîëè, â êîíâåðñèîííîé îïåðàöèè áàíêà è â ïåðåâîäå ñðåäñòâ íå áûëî ñïåêóëÿòèâíîé ñîñòàâëÿþùåé, çíà÷èò è ðåàêöèÿ ñàìèõ áàíêîâ íà òàêóþ ñäåëêó áóäåò íå òàêîé ñèëüíîé, êàê ýòî ìîæåò ïîêàçàòüñÿ. È êîòèðîâêè îñòàíóòñÿ íà ìåñòå. Êîòèðîâêè èçìåíÿòñÿ òîëüêî â òîì ñëó÷àå, åñëè áàíêó, êëèåíòîì êîòîðîãî ÿâëÿåòñÿ êîïàíèÿ-ïîêóïàòåëü, íå õâàòèò ñîáñòâåííûõ ñðåäñòâ äëÿ ñîâåðøåíèÿ îáìåíà âàëþò è åìó ïðèä¸òñÿ âûéòè íà ôîðåêñ çà ïîêóïêîé íåîáõîäèìîãî êîëè÷åñòâà éåíû. ß òî÷íî çíàþ, ÷òî â ðåçåðâàõ âñåõ êðóïíûõ áàíêîâ åñòü äîñòàòî÷íîå êîëè÷åñòâî ëþáûõ âàëþò äëÿ ñîâåðøåíèÿ îáìåííûõ îïåðàöèé. ×åðåç âðåìÿ áàíê ïðîâåä¸ò ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèþ ðåçåðâîâ è âîññòàíîâèò âíóòðåííèé áàëàíñ âàëþò.

    Âåðíóñü ê íà÷àëó. Öåíû, ðàññ÷èòàííûå ïî ïðèíöèïó ïàðèòåòà ïîêóïàòåëüíîé ñïîñîáíîñòè, â êîíöå êîíöîâ âûðàâíèâàþòñÿ ñ öåíàìè, êîòîðûå âûäà¸ò íàì ôîðåêñ, íî òàê ïðîèñõîäèò íå âñåãäà, âàëþòíûå âîéíû è íåñîãëàñîâàííîñòü ðàáîòû öåíòðîáàíêîâ, îñîáåííî â êðèçèñíûå ïåðèîäû, ñèëüíî ìåíÿþò êàðòèíó. Âûðàâíèâàíèå ïðîèñõîäèò ïîñòåïåííî è êàæåòñÿ, ÷òî áàíêîâñêàÿ ñèñòåìà î÷åíü õîðîøî è ïðàâèëüíî ðåãóëèðóåò ðûíîê âàëþò. Âñ¸ íå òàê. Ñèñòåìà íå ïðîñòî ðåãóëèðóåò ðûíîê, îíà è ÿâëÿåòñÿ ñàìèì ýòèì ðûíêîì, îíà ñîçäàëà ýòîò ðûíîê. Íå çðÿ áàíêè, ôîðìèðóþùèå êîòèðîâêè, íàçûâàþò Ìàðêåòìåéêåðàìè (Market maker — ñîçäàòåëü ðûíêà), îíè ñîçäàëè ýòîò ðûíîê è îíè æå èì óïðàâëÿþò. Ñïðîñ è ïðåäëîæåíèå íà ðûíêå òîæå èãðàþò ñâîþ ðîëü, íî òîëüêî êàê îäèí èç ìíîãèõ äðàéâåðîâ äâèæåíèÿ. Ïî ñóòè áàíêè âìåñòå ñ ñèñòåìîé ìîãóò ñî ñâîåé ñòîðîíû âëèÿòü íà ñïðîñ, äëÿ ýòîãî äîñòàòî÷íî íà÷àòü èñêóññòâåííî ïîäíèìàòü êîòèðîâêè ëþáîé èç âàëþò è ñïðîñ âîçíèêíåò ñàì ïî ñåáå, ÷èñòî íà ïñèõîëîãè÷åñêîì ôàêòîðå "îòñòàâàíèÿ îò ðûíêà".

     ïîñëåäíåå âðåìÿ ìíå äîâåëîñü ïðî÷èòàòü íåñêîëüêî ìíåíèé î "ïîâàäêàõ" êðóïíûõ ó÷àñòíèêîâ ðûíêà ôîðåêñ è ïðîñìîòðåòü íåñêîëüêî âèäåîìàòåðèàëîâ, â êîòîðûõ ëþäè î÷åíü îòâåòñòâåííî ðàññóæäàþò î òîì, êàê ðàáîòàþò êðóïíûå "èãðîêè" è â êàêîì ìåñòå ðûíêà ìàðêåòìåéêåð "ñëèë" ïîêóïàòåëåé, à ïîòîì íà÷àë "ñëèâàòü" ïðîäàâöîâ. Çàâåäîìîå çàáëóæäåíèå ìíîãèõ ó÷àñòíèêîâ çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ â òîì, ÷òî îíè ïîëàãàþò, áóäòî ìàðêåòìåéêåð âñåãäà ðàáîòàåò ïðîòèâ "òîëïû". À ñàìûì ñòðàøíûì çàáëóæäåíèåì ÿâëÿåòñÿ óòâåðæäåíèå î òîì, ÷òî êòî-òî çíàåò, êàê ðàáîòàåò "êðóïíÿê", è âñ¸ åãî ïîâåäåíèå ìîæíî îòñëåäèòü â ãðàôèêå è âçÿòü íà âîîðóæåíèå.

    Íèêòî èç ðÿäîâûõ ó÷àñòíèêîâ ðûíêà íå ìîæåò ôîðìàëèçîâàòü ïîâåäåíèå "êðóïíÿêà", îí ìîæåò òîëüêî äîãàäûâàòüñÿ. Âûäàâàÿ ñâîè äîãàäêè çà èñòèíó, ÷åëîâåê ÷àùå âñåãî ïîïàäàåò â áåçâûõîäíûå ñèòóàöèè, áóäó÷è àáñîëþòíî óâåðåí â ñâîåé ïðàâîòå. ß, óïðàâëÿÿ áîëüøèìè ñóììàìè â åâðîïåéñêîì áàíêå, íå ìîãó ïîõâàñòàòü òåì, ÷òî ÿ âñ¸ çíàþ î çàìûñëàõ êðóïíûõ ó÷àñòíèêîâ, õîòÿ ñàì ÿâëÿþñü îäíèì èç íèõ. Ó ìåíÿ ïðîñòîå ïðàâèëî: ëó÷øå ñîìíåâàòüñÿ è íå ïîòåðÿòü, ÷åì áûòü ñàìîóâåðåííûì è îñòàâàòüñÿ ñ óáûòêîì.

    Ìèðîøíè÷åíêî Ìèõàèë (consortium)

    Ñòàòüÿ íàïèñàíà â ñîàâòîðñòâå ñ Ellen Sholz (ñîòðóäíèê DB, ðàáîòàëà â âàëþòíûõ îòäåëàõ ING è UBS)

  3. 2 ïîëüçîâàòåëÿ(åé) ñêàçàëè cïàñèáî: Ivanof-f, Lucky_Strike
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    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    29.08.2012
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    2,382
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    133
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 1,502 ðàç(à) â 890 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    õîðîøî ïîìíþ Ìèõàèëà (àâòîðà ñòàòüè) åùå ïî ôîðóìó profinanservice, âñåãäà ñ èíòåðåñîì åãî ïîñòû ÷èòàë. À âîò ýòó,îñîáåííî ïðåäïîñëåäíèé àáçàö, íàäî ïî ñòî ðàç ïðî÷èòàòü òàêèì,êàê ïåðñîíàæ ñ íèêîì Rom4kegg , îí èç òåõ,î êîì òàì êàê ðàç è óïîìèíàåòñÿ.

  5. #74
    Ïîñòîÿííûé ó÷àñòíèê Àâàòàð äëÿ sergey75rus
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    05.04.2012
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    2,350
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    830
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 718 ðàç(à) â 474 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    Öèòàòà Ñîîáùåíèå îò Ivanof-f Ïîñìîòðåòü ñîîáùåíèå
    õîðîøî ïîìíþ Ìèõàèëà (àâòîðà ñòàòüè) åùå ïî ôîðóìó profinanservice, âñåãäà ñ èíòåðåñîì åãî ïîñòû ÷èòàë. À âîò ýòó,îñîáåííî ïðåäïîñëåäíèé àáçàö, íàäî ïî ñòî ðàç ïðî÷èòàòü òàêèì,êàê ïåðñîíàæ ñ íèêîì Rom4kegg , îí èç òåõ,î êîì òàì êàê ðàç è óïîìèíàåòñÿ.
    Ïå÷àëüêà â òîì, ÷òî ìàëî êòî ñ ôîðóìà çàõîäèò â ýòó âåòêó, òàê êàê âáèëè áîëüøèíñòâó â ãîëîâó, ÷òî àíàëèòèêà ýòî ïëîõî è íå ïîíèìàþò, ÷òî çàíÿòèå òðåéäèíãîì ïîäðàçóìåâàåò àíàëèòè÷åñêèé ïîäõîä â ýòîì ðåìåñëå.

    Èíîãäà åù¸ ÷èòàþ spydell, íî áåç ôàíàòèçìà.  îñíîâíîì òàê ðàäè ëþáîïûòñòâà â ñâîáîäíîå âðåìÿ, óçíàòü åãî ìíåíèå ïî êàêèì ëèáî âîïðîñàì.) À Ìèøà ïðîñòîé ÷åë â ïëàíå îáùåíèÿ, åñëè ÷åãî íå çíàåò, òàê îòêðûòî è ãîâîðèò è íå âûäóìûâàåò ðàçíûå ñêàçêè. Ó ìåíÿ ñ íèì äàæ íåäàâíî ðàçãîâîð áûë ïî ïîâîäó îáú¸ìîâ ñî ÑÌÅ äëÿ àíàëèçà ðûíêà ôîðåêñ ( êîìåíòû ïî åãî ñòàòüå, íó è íå óäåðæàëñÿ, ïàðó ñëîâ ñ íèì ïåðåêèíóëñÿ).

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    Ïîñòîÿííûé ó÷àñòíèê
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    29.08.2012
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    2,382
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    133
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 1,502 ðàç(à) â 890 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    íó,ïî÷åìó ïå÷àëüêà? Êîìó äåéñòâèòåëüíî èíòåðåñíî,òîò ñàì íàõîäèò è ææ spydela,è ñàéò Ìèõàèëà,è âñ¸,÷òî äóøå óãîäíî :). Âñ¸ èíäèâèäóàëüíî è çàâèñèò îò óð-íÿ ðàçâèòèÿ. Åñòü,íàïðèìåð, ïåðñîíàæè,êîòîðûå íà ïîëíîì ñåðü¸çå óâåðåíû,÷òî ÷èòàþò "êà÷åñòâåííóþ " àíàëèòèêó â ëåíòå îò "Èíòåðôàêñ" :)

  7. Ïîëüçîâàòåëü ñêàçàë cïàñèáî: sergey75rus
  8. #76
    Ïîñòîÿííûé ó÷àñòíèê Àâàòàð äëÿ sergey75rus
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    05.04.2012
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    2,350
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    830
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 718 ðàç(à) â 474 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    ÐÛÍÎ×ÍÛÅ ÒÅÍÄÅÍÖÈÈ.

    6 äåê, 2013 at 8:53 AM

    ×òî-òî íèêòî íå âñïîìèíàåò ïðî äîëãîâûå ïèðóýòû ÑØÀ, à âåäü 1.5 ìåñÿöà êàê ñíÿëè ëèìèò. 200 ìëðä íà îòêðûòîì ðûíêå ñ òåõ ïîð çàíÿëè – íåñêîëüêî âûøå íîðìû. 81.8 ìëðä â îêòÿáðå, 92.8 ìëðä â íîÿáðå è 26 ìëðä çà ïåðâûå 3 äíÿ äåêàáðÿ. Î ãîñ.äîëãå ÑØÀ åùå áóäåò âðåìÿ ïîãîâîðèòü. Íî èíòåðåñíî, êàê ñ îòìåíû ëèìèòà ïî äîëãó ïîâåëè ñåáÿ ðûíêè è âàëþòû?

    17 îêòÿáðÿ ÿ âûäâèíóë ïðåäïîëîæåíèå:http://spydell.livejournal.com/512774.html, ÷òî ðàëëè çàêîí÷èëîñü è ñ 18 îêòÿáðÿ ïîðà ãîòîâèòüñÿ ê êîððåêöèè. Íàø ðûíîê îòðàáîòàë î÷åíü ÷åòêî è èìåííî 18 îêòÿáðÿ íàðèñîâàë ìàêñèìóì è ñ òåõ ïîð âàëèòñÿ, íå îñòàíàâëèâàÿñü.
    Îäíàêî, íå òîëüêî ó íàñ âñå òàê ïëîõî. Óïàëè ïî÷òè âñå ðûíêè, ãäå áîëüøå âñåõ Áðàçèëèÿ, Èíäîíåçèÿ, Ôèëèïïèíû, Ðîññèÿ. Ìîæíî çàìåòèòü òàêóþ îñîáåííîñòü, ÷òî õóæå îñòàëüíûõ ïðåèìóùåñòâåííî íèçêî è ñðåäíå ëèêâèäíûå ðûíêè, òîãäà êàê ßïîíèÿ, ÑØÀ, Ãåðìàíèÿ â ïëþñå.



    Åñëè êòî òî äóìàåò, ÷òî äåâàëüâàöèÿ ðóáëÿ íà 3.4% çà ýòî âðåìÿ ìíîãî, òî íàâåðíîå íå âèäåëè, ÷òî â äðóãèõ ñòðàíàõ.
    È âîò ÷òî:



    Ïëþñ â òàáëèöå – ýòî çíà÷èò äåâàëüâàöèÿ íàö.âàëþòû. Ïàäåíèå íàö.âàëþò ïî÷òè âñåõ ñòðàí ê äîëëàðó ÿâëåíèå ãëîáàëüíîå, ïî êðàéíåé ìåðå îò 18 îêòÿáðÿ.

    Èäåÿ áûëà â òîì, ÷òî ïîä ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå äîëãà ÑØÀ íóæíà ëèêâèäíîñòü è åå íà÷íóò çàêà÷èâàòü ñî âñåãî ìèðà â òðåæåðèñ. Áåíÿ, êîíå÷íî, ïðîäîëæàåò ïå÷àòàòü, íî ýòîãî îáúåêòèâíî íåäîñòàòî÷íî, ò.ê. îáúåì çàèìñòâîâàíèé âûøå â 1.5 ðàçà, ÷åì ÔÐÑ øâûðÿåòñÿ äåíüãàìè, à êðîìå òîãî íóæíû ðåñóðñû, ÷òîáû êàê òî ïîääåðæèâàòü ïóçûðü íà ôîíäîâîì ðûíêå è ïîñòåïåííî ñâîðà÷èâàòüñÿ. Òå äåíüãè, ÷òî íàïå÷àòàëè - ñ óñïåõîì çàãðóæåíû â íàèáîëåå ðèñêîâàííûõ àêòèâàõ.

    Ïðîáëåìà åùå â òîì, ÷òî îíè çàøëè íàñòîëüêî äàëåêî è òàê ñèëüíî ðàçëîæèëè îñòîâ ñèñòåìû, ÷òî ðàñïðîäàòü çàòàðåííûé êýø â àêöèÿõ íå ïðåäñòàâëÿåòñÿ âîçìîæíûì, äàæå òåîðåòè÷åñêè.  ìèðå ïðîñòî íåò ñòîëüêî äóðàêîâ ñ äåíüãàìè, äàæå åñëè ñîáðàòü èõ âìåñòå è ïîñòàâèòü ê ñòåíêå. Òåì áîëåå ïðîïàãàíäà «ëó÷øåãî ìîìåíòà âõîäà çà öåëîå ïîêîëåíèå» è «òàê äåøåâî àêöèè íå áóäóò ñòîèòü íèêîãäà» ïåðåñòàëà ðàáîòàòü äîëæíûì îáðàçîì.

    Ïîêà âèäíà òåíäåíöèÿ, ÷òî íàðåçû ïûòàþòñÿ ïîääåðæàòü èëëþçèþ ïðîöâåòàíèÿ è áëàãîäåíñòâèÿ íà íàèáîëåå ëèêâèäíûõ ðûíêàõ çà èñêëþ÷åíèåì íåêîòîðûõ, âûõîäÿ èç îñòàëüíûõ, ÷òîáû ñíèçèòü èçäåðæêè è ðûíî÷íûå ïðîñêàëüçûâàíèÿ â ñëó÷àå ïàíèêè. Âûñîêàÿ óñòîé÷èâîñòü àìåðèêàíñêîãî ðûíêà - ýòî âîçìîæíî ïîñëåäíÿÿ ïîïûòêà çàòàùèòü äóðåìàðîâ â àêöèè, ïðîäàâàÿ èäåþ, ÷òî êðèçèñ äàâíî êîí÷èëñÿ, à êîìïàíèè îò÷èòûâàþòñÿ îãî-ãî êàê è âñå åùå âïåðåäè. Ïîíÿòíî, ÷òî âûéòè íà îáúåìàõ ïî ïðèåìëåìûì óðîâíÿì â ñëó÷àå ôîðñ ìàæîðà èç íèçêîëèêâèäíûõ àêòèâîâ ïðàêòè÷åñêè íåâîçìîæíî.

    ×òî áóäóò äåëàòü ñ ïóçûðåì íà ðûíêàõ òðóäíî ñêàçàòü. Îäíîé èç öåíòðàëüíûõ ïðè÷èí òîãî, ÷òî ÔÐÑ îòêàçàëñÿ ñîêðàùàòü QE3 â ýòîìó ãîäó – ýòî äîï.ðåñóðñû íà ïðîäîëæåíèå èíâåñòèöèîííîãî áåçóìèÿ ñ òåì, ÷òî äèëåðû ìîãëè ïîääåðæàòü ïîçèöèè íà ðûíêå – ÷èñòîå ìîøåííè÷åñòâî è íè÷åãî áîëåå! )) Íî ÷åì äàëüøå – òåì ñëîæíåå îñòàíîâèòüñÿ. Òàê ÷òî âïåðåäè âñå ñàìîå èíòåðåñíîå – ïðîöåññ îõëàæäåíèÿ òåðìîÿäåðíîãî ðåàêòîðà.

    Àíàëèòèêà îò spydell: http://spydell.livejournal.com/

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    Ó÷àñòíèê Àâàòàð äëÿ Abs
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    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 26 ðàç(à) â 24 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    Ðåáÿò, åñòü òóò òîðãîâöû ïî íîâîñòÿì?
    ß íàø¸ë ñêðèïò äëÿ ÌÒ4, êîòîðûé èç òàáëèöû ýêñåëü âûâîäèò âåðòèêàëüíûå ëèíèè â ìîìåíò âûõîäà íîâîñòè. Ñêðèïò ôèëüòðóåò ïî ïàðàì (åñëè ñèìâîë ïðèñóòñòâóåò â ïàðå, òî âûäåëÿåò ñïëîøíîé ëèíèåé, åñëè ñèìâîëà íåò â ïàðå, òî ðèñóåò ïóíêòèðîì).  îñòàëüíîì ñêðèïò òóïåéøèé, â òîì ñìûñëå , ÷òî áåð¸ò òîëüêî òå äàííûå, ÷òî çàáèòû â ôàéë csv. Ïåðåä ëþáûì æåëàþùèì ïðîòåñòèòü ñâîþ íîâîñòíóþ ÒÑ íà èñòîðèè âñòà¸ò çàäà÷à: êàê çàïèñàòü âñå íîâîñòè â ýòîò csv. ß íå ñìîã ïðèäóìàòü àâòîìàòè÷åñêîãî ñïîñîáà ýòî ñäåëàòü. Âàðèàíòà ðåøåíèÿ äâà:
    1) Íàéòè ñïîñîá àâòîìàòèçèðîâàííîãî çàïîëíåíèÿ òàáëèöû;
    2) Ñàìèì âðó÷íóþ âíèìàòåëüíî çàáèòü âñå äàííûå.
    ß ìîãó íàïèñàòü êðàòêóþ èíñòðóêöèþ êàêèì îáðàçîì âáèâàòü äàííûå. Íóæíà ïîìîùü. Åñëè 12 ÷åëîâåê âîçüì¸ò õîòÿ áû ïî ìåñÿöó, òî â ñêîðîì âðåìåíè ó íàñ áóäåò öåëûé ãîä äëÿ òåñòà ÒÑ! Ìîæíî áóäåò ïðîáîâàòü ïèñàòü ñîâåòíèêè è ÷òî óãîäíî. Íåíàâèæó ðóòèííóþ ðàáîòó. Êòî ãîòîâ ñîâìåñòíî ñîòâîðèòü äàííóþ òàáëèöó? Ïèøèòå â ëè÷êó.

    Ñêðèïò: http://book.mql4.com/ru/functions/files

  10. #78
    ClusterDelta.com Team
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    12.11.2011
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    4,067
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    627
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    Why the Bond Market Is More Fragile Than You Think


    A bottleneck is building in the global market for bonds.

    Main Street investors have poured a trillion dollars into bonds since the financial crisis, and helped send prices soaring. As fund managers and regulators fret about an inevitable sell-off, the bigger fear is that when people go to unload, there won't be anyone to buy.

    Too many funds own the same bonds, making them difficult to sell in a sudden downturn. On top of that, the banks that used to bring bond buyers and sellers together have pulled back from the role. Investors looking to sell would be slow to find buyers, spreading fear through the $100 trillion global bond market and sending prices tumbling.

    It's a situation known as "liquidity risk" and some bond pros are scrambling to prepare for it.

    Portfolio managers are hoarding cash. BlackRock, the world's largest fund manager, is suggesting regulators consider new fees for investors pulling out of funds. Apollo Management, famous for profiting from a bond collapse 25 years ago, is launching a fund to bet against bonds.

    Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of bond fund giant Pimco, thinks ordinary investors are too blasé about the flaws in the trading system. Investors today are like homeowners who only discover there's a clog under the sink when it's too late and they're staring at a mess.

    "It's only when you try to put a lot of things through the pipes that you realize" you've got a problem, says El-Erian, now chief economic adviser to global insurer Allianz. "You get an enormous backup."

    What's at risk is more than money in retirement accounts. Big investors often borrow when buying bonds and so losses can be magnified. Trillions of dollars of bets using derivatives ride on bonds, too. A small fall in prices could lead to losses that reverberate throughout the financial system.

    "The market is so tightly wound," says JPMorgan's William Eigen, head of its Strategic Income Opportunities fund, who has put 63 percent of his portfolio in cash. "There's no place to hide."

    In such a fragile situation, even news with no bearing on bond fundamentals can trigger losses. After Pimco star manager Bill Gross announced Friday that he was quitting, some bonds fell sharply as investors pulled out of the company's funds and forced their managers to sell into an illiquid market, says Guy LeBas, chief bond strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. An index tracking "junk" bonds issued by risky companies dropped 0.74 percent in two trading days, a big move.

    HIGH PRICES

    Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's efforts to hold down borrowing costs for businesses and consumers have pushed interest payments on many bonds to record lows. That's set off a rush by investors into riskier ones offering higher payments. The buying has pushed up prices, and added to the risk. Since the start of 2009, funds invested in junk bonds have returned an average 14 percent each year and municipal bond funds 6 percent, according to the Investment Company Institute, double their averages in the prior six years.

    Even seemingly "safe" government debt looks dangerous now, according to a September report by Deutsche Bank. Many bonds sold by wealthy countries like France, Australia, and Britain recently are so high-priced you'd have to go back centuries to find more expensive ones, the report notes. And since corporate bonds are priced off government ones, much of that market is also at risk for a fall.

    Meanwhile, the quality of the bonds offered for sale continues to drop. Companies stripped half of their new junk loans and bonds last year of protections that investors usually demand, according to the International Monetary Fund. Still, they were able to sell a near record amount of them. The government of Ecuador defaulted on its debt just five years ago, but it had so much demand for its bonds in a $2 billion sale in June, it could have raised more than double that amount.

    The conclusion of Deutsche's 104-page report is that some bonds are "exhibiting bubble tendencies." The IMF is worried, too. In its own recent report, it warned of possible "fire sales" for some bonds.

    PLUMBING PROBLEM

    To trade most corporate and municipal bonds, you have to phone or email brokers at banks and other firms who pair buyers and sellers. If they can't find a match for you, they dip into their own stash of bonds to buy and sell themselves.

    But banks and other middlemen are pulling back from this matchmaking because of new regulations limiting their activities. And they have largely abandoned their role as a buyer or seller of last resort. They've slashed their stash of bonds by 80 percent since 2007, according to State Street Global Advisors.

    The result is buyers and sellers in the $50 trillion corporate and muni market are struggling to find each other, and the frequency of trades has plunged. The average muni bond now changes hands half as much as it did in 2006, according to BlackRock. In corporate bonds, trading has dropped by more than a third.

    In such an illiquid market, prices have fallen fast several times in the past year.

    After the Fed hinted at a pullback from its bond-buying program last year, bonds from the safest "investment grade" companies fell 6.2 percent in less than two months, according to Barclays Capital.

    As selling rippled around the world, some fund managers found themselves dumping bonds they would normally keep. Managers initially sold bonds issued in foreign currencies from companies in Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil, countries most at risk if U.S. interest rates rose.

    Then contagion struck. It became difficult to unload those bonds at decent prices, because so many funds in these "crowded trades" were trying to dump them. So managers desperate to shore up their funds started selling bonds from relatively healthy countries like Peru, the Philippines and South Korea, says Manoj Pradhan, a senior economist at Morgan Stanley.

    "It's the old adage: When you can't sell what you want to sell, you sell what you can," Pradhan says.

    Bonds bounced back when the Fed delayed its withdrawal of stimulus. But fund manager Michael Lewitt of the Credit Strategist Group is warning investors not to fool themselves that the worst in over. "When there's little liquidity, it doesn't take many sales to move the price," he says.

    Investment firm Franklin Square Capital Partners also suspects another downturn is coming, and is raising cash to exploit any panic. Says Executive Vice President Zachary Klehr, "Forced sellers create ideal buying opportunities."

    THE FED RISK

    Now, the U.S. central bank, which has done so much to lift prices, is threatening to knock the market from its perch. The Fed plans to end its own bond-buying program after its next meeting in October, and is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates it controls next year. Bond investors have occasionally sold in a panic when these rates have risen in the past.

    What will happen to bonds when the Fed hikes rates this time?

    The last time it started raising them in 2004, investors barely flinched. The time before that, in 1994, they fled in panic. The Fed surprised investors with six hikes in 10 months, and bond funds lost a record 2.8 percent.

    The drop may seem small, but the damage was widespread. Big investors like hedge funds were hit hard. Orange County, California, went bankrupt. The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index fell 9 percent in three months.


    Today the Fed is telegraphing its every move and most investors think it will raise rates in slow and predictable increments. And all that cash that fund managers hold will help, too. Cash comprised 8.8 percent of assets in August, versus 6.3 percent before last year's sell-off in May, according to the Investment Company Institute.

    That cash helped in a recent scare. Fearing the Fed might raise rates faster than expected, investors pulled billions of dollars out of junk bond funds in July. But many fund managers were able to the pay the investors without causing a panic. By the end of the month, the funds had fallen an average of 1.2 percent, according to Morningstar.

    "Everyone thought it would be a blood bath," says Marilyn Cohen, founder of Envision Capital, a bond manager. The story is "crisis averted, for now."

    But other signs in the market aren't so reassuring. Insurers and pension funds that tend to hold their bonds through booms and busts and stabilize the market are playing a smaller role. They own 25 percent of all corporate bonds, down from 40 percent in 2000, according to the IMF.

    That lion's share now goes to Main Street buyers who are more short-term and easily spooked. They buy their bonds mostly through mutual and exchange-traded funds, vehicles for quick-trading that have doubled in number since the crisis.

    Hans Mikkelsen, global credit strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, thinks the shift could lead to big trouble in the next rate hike.

    "The market isn't pricing in the risk that it's going to be like 1994, or even worse," he says.


    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireS...inglePage=true



    ï.ñ.

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  11. #79
    Ó÷àñòíèê Àâàòàð äëÿ quinsight
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    30.08.2014
    Àäðåñ
    Óêðàèíà
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    487
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    0
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 41 ðàç(à) â 32 ñîîáùåíèÿõ

    Àíàëèç ïðè÷èí ïàäåíèÿ Ðóáëÿ

    Àíàëèç ïðè÷èí ïàäåíèÿ ðóáëÿ.

    Çà ïîñëåäíèå íåñêîëüêî ìåñÿöåâ ðóáëü óïðÿìî ïàäàåò è âñå çàäàþòñÿ âîïðîñîì, ÷òî èìåííî ñëóæèò ïðè÷èíîé ïàäåíèÿ è êîãäà ïàäåíèå ïðåêðàòèòüñÿ?

    Âî-ïåðâûõ, ñòîèëî áû îòìåòèòü, ÷òî ïàäåíèå ðóáëÿ îáóñëîâëåíî ðÿäîì ïðè÷èí, êîòîðûå â ñîâîêóïíîñòè ñîçäàþò íåãàòèâíûå ïîñëåäñòâèÿ äëÿ ðóáëÿ è ýêîíîìèêè â öåëîì.
    ×òî áû ïîíÿòü ñåðüåçíîñòü ñèòóàöèè, íóæíî ïîñìîòðåòü íà ïðîøåäøèå ïîëãîäà è âûäåëèòü îñíîâíûå ñîáûòèÿ, êîòîðûå ñîñòàâèëè äàâëåíèå íà òðåéäåðîâ è èíâåñòîðîâ:

    - Î÷åíü íåãàòèâíîå âëèÿíèå îêàçàë òîò ôàêòîð, ÷òî Ðîññèÿ áûëà âîâëå÷åíà â îáîñòðåíèå êîíôëèêòíîé ñèòóàöèè â Óêðàèíå è â Êðûìó

    - Êàê ñëåäñòâèå ïîÿâèëèñü ðÿä ñàíêöèé â îòíîøåíèè Ðîññèè è ýêîíîìèêè â ÷àñòíîñòè

    - Òàê æå ñåðüåçíî ïîâëèÿëî íà íàñòðîåíèÿ èíâåñòîðîâ ñèòóàöèÿ ñî çíà÷èòåëüíûì ñíèæåíèåì öåíû íà íåôòü, îò êîòîðîé ñèëüíî çàâèñèò áëàãîïîëó÷èå Ðîññèè

    - Ðÿä ïðèíÿòûõ ðåøåíèé îòíîñèòåëüíî ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê è ñîêðàùåíèÿ èíòåðâåíöèé ÖÁ òàê æå ñïîñîáñòâóþò ïàäåíèþ ðóáëÿ.

    Ýòî îñíîâíûå ïðè÷èíû, êîòîðûå äàâÿò íà ðóáëü è íà ó÷àñòíèêîâ ðûíêà. Êàê ñëåäñòâèå âûøå èçëîæåííûõ ïóíêòîâ, ìîæíî íàáëþäàòü ïàíè÷åñêèå íàñòðîåíèÿ, êîòîðûå äàþò íåãàòèâíûé îòïå÷àòîê íà êóðñå è ïîâåäåíèè òðåéäåðîâ è èíâåñòîðîâ.
    Òîò ôàêò, ÷òî îäèí èç îñíîâíûõ èñòî÷íèêîâ ïîïîëíåíèÿ áþäæåòà - íåôòü, ïðîäîëæàåò ïàäàòü, íåò ñìûñëà ãîâîðèòü î áûñòðîì âîçâðàùåíèè ðóáëÿ íà ïðåæíèå çíà÷åíèÿ èëè õîòÿ áû ïðèáëèçèòüñÿ ê íèì.
    Ñèòóàöèÿ â Óêðàèíå è ïîñòîÿííûå äîêàçàòåëüñòâà ïðè÷àñòíîñòè Ðîññèè ê êîíôëèêòó íà âîñòîêå Óêðàèíû, à òàê æå îòêàç ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ïîéòè íà âñòðå÷ó ê óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êîíôëèêòà, âåðîÿòíåå âñåãî ïîâëå÷åò íîâûå ñàíêöèè, â òîì ÷èñëå êàñàþùèåñÿ ôèíàíñîâûå ó÷ðåæäåíèÿ è ñåêòîðà ýêîíîìèêè, åùå ðàç ñîçäàäóò äàâëåíèå íà ðóáëü.

    Ñîîáùåíèÿ î íåñòàáèëüíîñòè ðÿäà áàíêîâ è ïðîáëåìû ñ âûäà÷åé íàëè÷íûõ ñðåäñòâ, ìîæåò âûçâàòü ïàíèêó ó íàñåëåíèÿ è ïîäâåðãíóòü ñåðüåçíîé îïàñíîñòè áàíêîâñêóþ ñòðóêòóðó â ñòðàíå.
    Ïîïûòêè ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ðåøèòü ïðîáëåìû ïóòåì ôèíàíñîâûõ ðåçåðâîâ âëèÿþò íà ñèòóàöèþ ïîëîæèòåëüíîé äèíàìèêîé, íî äîëãî òàê ïðîäîëæàòüñÿ íå áóäåò, òàê êàê ðåçåðâû ëèìèòèðîâàíû. Åñëè ó÷åñòü, ÷òî ÖÁ ïîêóïàåò î÷åíü äîðîãîé ðóáëü, ÷òîáû îñòàíîâèòü ïàäåíèå êóðñà, äàæå ïðè ñòàáèëèçàöèè êóðñà áóäåò ïîòåðÿíà çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü äåíåæíûõ ñðåäñòâ.

    Åñëè ïîïûòàòüñÿ ñäåëàòü ïðîãíîç îòíîñèòåëüíî ïðîèçîøåäøèõ ñîáûòèé è ïîïûòîê Ðîññèåé óðåãóëèðîâàòü ïðè÷èíû, ñîçäàþùèå äàâëåíèå, òî ìû ïîëó÷èì ñëåäóþùèå âûâîäû:

    - Êîíôëèêò íà âîñòîêå Óêðàèíû òîëüêî îáîñòðÿåòñÿ è ýòîò ôàêò ãîâîðèò íå â ïîëüçó óêðåïëåíèÿ ðóáëÿ

    - Êàê ñëåäñòâèå âåðîÿòíîñòü ñàíêöèé îñòàåòñÿ âåëèêà è áåçóñëîâíî íîâûé ïàêåò îêàæåò åùå îäíî äàâëåíèå íà ðóáëü. ÖÁ ñíîâà ïðèäåòñÿ ïûòàòüñÿ ñäåðæàòü êóðñ ðóáëÿ îò ïàäåíèÿ è ïîêóïàòü äîðîãîé ðóáëü çà âàëþòó ïîäâåðãàÿ ñâîè ðåçåðâû íàãðóçêå, êîòîðàÿ â èòîãå òàê æå ñêàæåòñÿ íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé óñòîé÷èâîñòè

    - Ñèòóàöèþ ìîæåò óëó÷øèòü ðîñò íà íåôòü, íî âîçâðàùåíèå íà ðûíîê ñòðàí ñ âîçìîæíîñòüþ è æåëàíèåì çàáðàòü ñåáå ÷àñòü ðûíêà çà ñ÷åò âîçìîæíîñòè ïðîäàâàòü áîëåå äåøåâóþ íåôòü ñòàâèò ïîä âîïðîñ âîçâðàò öåíû íåôòè íà óðîâåíü õîòÿ áû 110 äîëëàðîâ

    - Ïëþñ êî âñåìó íàñòðîåíèÿ íàñåëåíèÿ ñòðàíû òàê æå íå ñòàíîâÿòñÿ ëó÷øå è åñòü îïàñíîñòü ïàíè÷åñêèõ íàøåñòâèé íà áàíêè ñòðàíû, êîòîðûå â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü ìîãóò îêàçàòüñÿ ïîä óãðîçîé ïðåêðàùåíèÿ ðàáîòû, ÷òî òîëüêî óñèëèò íåãàòèâíûå íàñòðîåíèÿ.

    Ïîñòàâèòü îïðåäåëåííóþ îòìåòêó äëÿ äàëüíåéøåãî ïàäåíèÿ ðóáëÿ ñëîæíî, íî ôàêòû ãîâîðÿò î òîì, ÷òî óêðåïëåíèå ðóáëÿ íà ïðåæíèå óðîâíè â áëèæàéøåå âðåìÿ ìàëîâåðîÿòíî.

    Âñåì Óñïåøíûõ Òðåéäîâ!
    Èçîáðàæåíèÿ

  12. #80
    ClusterDelta.com Team
    Ðåãèñòðàöèÿ
    12.11.2011
    Ñîîáùåíèé
    4,067
    Ñêàçàë(à) ñïàñèáî
    627
    Ïîáëàãîäàðèëè 1,776 ðàç(à) â 1,249 ñîîáùåíèÿõ
    íà Áëóìáåðãå óâèäåë ññûëêó

    “We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”



    Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.


    ïðè ñèëüíîì äîëëàðå îáâàë ôîíäû ýòî áóäåò Àðìàãåääîí
    Àëåêñàíäð

    ÷òî áû ïîñìîòðåòü êàðòèíêó â ïîëíîì ðàçìåðå - ïðàâîé êíîïêîé ìûøè\ îòêðûòü èçîáðàæåíèå â íîâîé âêëàäêå
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